Fear. You can smell it in the markets. Yet this is only the first whiff. The kind you get off the stockyards along I-40 up in the Texas Panhandle, long before Amarillo. Palpable.
Fortunately, also tradeable.
Fear Looks Like This:
Discussion: First, this is an Aggregate Index.
Second is the (yellow, large) Wave 2 upmay be complete. We MAY be working down into Wave 3 – in which case life will be hitting the rails sooner than later.
HOWEVER myconsigliere holds that we could have a Wave 5 up, which means an increase in the Aggregate at least equal to the (minor) Wave 1 of the larger 2.
The problem with this scenario is? Well, it would nearly require a massive inflation of some kind. Gold is back in the $2,350 range, silver over $31.50, so nothing is “out of the question” particularly since the Public Debt is $34.6 trillion dollars. On which, inflation alone (at the Feds 5.25 to 5.50 percent rates) pushes out between $36.41 trillion or $36.5 trillion.
While the (hot pink) latest ascending (subdividing) wave structure could halt the present decline and begin a shocking rally higher, we’ll just sit on the sidelines and twiddle a while.
Dow futures were down (another) 300-odd earlier, but in Europe markets were half-ass holding their own earlier. De Nile is a river in…
Data Salad
Our “num-num” in the numbers is hard to score. If GDP is too hot, ol’ Joe might have an economic peak before the election. If too hot, no rate mercy from the Fed until at least September. After that, it won’t matter, even with the “It’s the Economy, Stupid” behavior of brainwashed sheep.
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Our next serving of economic mirth and merriment? Corporate Profits. Which in our view could have been higher, but DEI and “equity hires” has overcome Competence and Disciplined Managment. Hooray?
“Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $73.7 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $114.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $136.5 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $19.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $8.9 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $29.8 billion, and payments increased $10.5 billion.”
How about Trade numbers? (A little fresh ground parm on that?)
There is also the weekly New Unemployment Filings to consider…
One other data point to consider is Bitcoin. Around $67,885. But when the market really hits the skids, we would expect BTC to slide under $50,000.
The Biden War Plan
We’ve been warning you for some time that the Biden Administration is nearly desperate to get a major war going. Doesn’t have to be nuclear, but that might extend the governments “command and control” over the once Free America, even more.
We see evidence of this as Blinken hints US may accept Ukrainian strikes in Russia with American arms.
Can some adults please think this through? How would the U.S. react if Russia were to send high persistence, long-range drones up from Cuba to bomb Gulf of Mexico refining capacity in America? Not well, right?
With the shoe on the other foot, though, America will be led into a massive ground war in Europe. Which will be the “celebrated reason” for the coming collapse of financial markets globally.
It’s almost bad enough that an “emergency meeting of the world’s wealthiest” could be called in Davos. Because it is such a hard call for the Powers-that-Be to decide on whether to roll with massive ground war to cover-up the decades-long financial scammery, OR whether to just roll out Disease-X and do lockdowns and whateverthat way. Hmm…,tough decision, huh?
As we look around, we see people are losing their minds in greater numbers. Nikki Haley, apparently numb to the wordgenocide has signed off on more Gaza woes. Nikki Haley’s ‘Finish Them’ message on Israeli bomb for Gaza sparks condemnation (aa.com.tr).
Gaza? Not exactly a poster child for Made in America lately as US Gaza Pier BREAKS APART, Fails, Biden Admin Screwed This Up.
On the other hand, as Haley talks herself out of the VP spot for Trump, we think it’s a damn shame that Elon Musk was born in Pretoria (So. Africa, not Illinois). Because there may be a role in government for him to play: Elon Musk to become a policy advisor if Donald Trump returns to White House?
Say what you will about Donald Trump (“guilty” seems likely) we have no beef with his hiring skills for any of the (ahem…) positions under him.
Far as we can tell, even if Slow Joe instantly pardon’s Trump in an effort to play the magnanimous card, Trump’s still got a path forward by getting every bit of free-agent talent possible lined up to agree to serve.
Biden’s Biggest Problem? Biden
While the co-opted and controlled corporate media have managed to keep Biden’s two sons (relatively) out of headlines, the Old Man is demonstrating again that he is his own worst enemy.
Here we read Joe reprising Obama giving money to Iran as a riff: Biden’s suspended Iran envoy may have improperly shared classified material: report (nypost.com).
And what’s this? Pinocchioette? Jen Psaki Insists That Campaigns Never Work With Media to Suppress Stories.
While the jury in the Trump case deliberates, Biden keeps working on losing the Black vote: ‘Feel Like Vomiting’: ‘Blexit’ Activist Shreds Biden’s ‘Black This, Black That’ Rhetoric, Says It Wont ‘Play’ Well. Trump on the other hand will be considered a “brother” if he does time – even an overnight would work from a marketing standpoint.
Gee, remember when America just made things (well) and had a Big National Focus like “going to the Moon” or something? You know Ure old when…
The Morning Kangaroo check: Andy McCarthy reacts to Judge Merchan instructing the jury that they DO NOT NEED UNANIMITY to convict Trump. He will treat 4-4-4 on three different choices of felonies as a “unanimous verdict.” Someone want to give the judge a copy of Black’s Law so he can look up “unanimous”? Let me help – good citizen thing to do:
“Agreement of all the persons concerned, in holding one and the same opinion or determination of any matter or question; as the concurrence of a jury in deciding upon their verdict.”
Yep, just a ‘roo court.
Still think I was kidding about it being a ‘roo court?
Hip and Pot Shots
The trans industry growth plans just hit a wall in the UK as UK Announces Temporary Ban on Puberty Blockers.
Time to sell out of Boston: Liberal Boston Mayor Supports Ending the Prosecution of Criminals for Theft, Breaking and Entering. Thankfully, we are in a Castle state.
For your ‘Best Government Money Can Buy” files: House Ethics Committee announces investigation of Rep. Henry Cuellar – UPI.com
But at least there’s no inflation here. Oh, wait…McDonald’s exec says average menu item costs 40% more than in 2019.
At the Ranch: Two-Factor Security Trap
OK, been a busy week – with major storms going through East Texas. Which took down power and it was off for a whole day here. We didn’t even notice, hardly. The generator started right up, and the house ran fine on it. And the big battery bank on my solar backup for the office worked with not so much as a finger being lifted.
BUT we discovered a massive trap that could be sprung on America by unexpected events. Namely “Two-Factor Lock Out.”
Here’s how it works:
- When we do any banking or trading, we have two-factor security. It points at our landline. (Because cell phones are easily monitored.)
- When the power went out, it took down a line card and power supply in the telco equipment cabinet a few blocks away.
- As a result, if I had been in an aggressive trade when the storms came through, I would not have been able to get an “access code” to get me into any of the bank accounts, or trading accounts.
Money suddenly got immoveable.
We do have backup plans. One of which is to have a MagicJack which can access via any of our three internet systems (telco HDSL, ViaSat, and Starlink). But then comes the question about whether I want to have my two-factor based on a landline asset (that just demonstrated it can fail) or whether I should try cell (which was/is also down, remember, no signal out here, so who knows?) And then there’s the issue of having to keep the computer on to get a MagicJack call.
Anyway, lots to think about. Our telco connections is up for voice services, but we won’t have the third web ramp (HDSL hardline) up until as late as 10 PM tonight.
There was some Humor from the Universe, though.
We had just gotten power back, the jury was about to go out in the Trump case. And a blonde-haired woman gets out of the telco truck to check demark here.
“Hi, I’m Stormy…”
God or Universe sure has some kick-ass writers, huh?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_shareUrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/
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